A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
